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Actionable advice profiles

A small but important portion of your clients may be close to retirement and underfunded. Let's walk through how to have those tough conversations.

In retirement

Overview

Select a profile for talking points on how to help your clients adjust to meet their retirement spending goals.

Red Zone

A client in the Red Zone needs to clearly understand that the market downturn may have created a large gap between their planned retirement spending and what they can sustain. As such, they may face a very serious risk and must take action with regard to their stated goals.

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On the basis of the analysis from the Client analyzer, this client is in the Red Zone.

Retired investors who are in the Red Zone have less than a 70% chance of reaching their desired income goal during retirement with a diversified portfolio1.

These clients need to clearly understand that the market downturn may have created a large gap between their planned retirement spending and what they can sustain.

As such, they may face a very serious risk and must take action with regard to their stated goals.

Potential actions

Discuss the need to make tough decisions as soon as possible to alter their goals. The tone of these conversations is less about what they may be considering and more about what they must do.

Income Lever (Potential Flexibility: Low)
  • Strongly recommend that these clients resume full-time or part-time work immediately. Depending on the level of income they can generate, this single action may be all that is necessary to address their large retirement-income deficit. Because of the significant difference this single change could make, it is a priority for investors in the Red Zone.
  • Since these clients are already retired, however, this lever may not be available. And even if it is available, it may be difficult to pull, or at the very least may take some time to pull.
  • In these cases, we suggest simultaneously revisiting spending goals.
Spending Lever (Potential Flexibility: Moderate)
  • Materially reduce these clients' spending plans during all or part of their retirement. Also plan to delay or eliminate all nonessential, one-time expenditures.
  • Establish a minimum-spending requirement for planning purposes before considering any changes to the investment portfolio.
Investment Lever (Potential Flexibility: Low)
  • Along with altering spending and income, you may need to annuitize some or all of these clients' anticipated income needs to provide a safety net for some of their living expenses. (The guarantee of this income, however, is subject to the claims paying ability of the issuing insurance company.)
  • One way to approach this is to calculate the cost of annuitizing a minimum spending floor and to invest the remaining assets. Depending on the cost of the annuity relative to the annual payment, this could reduce the withdrawal strain on the non-annuitized portion of the portfolio. For example, if an annuity can generate income of 6% for half of the portfolio and the goal is an overall spending rate of 4%, then the non-annuitized portion would need to generate 2% cash flow to maintain the 4% overall rate. Consider this in the context of the other levers' effects.

These potential actions represent only some of the possibilities investors can choose to manage their retirement plan.

Discussion suggestions

Consider the availability and order of the levers. For example, discuss whether or not the client can resume full-time or part-time work, or spend less and what is the potential impact. If your client is able and willing to work part time for a few years, this supplemental income stream may give them a higher probability of meeting their retirement goals without further spending reductions.

These clients must take action in order to make up their investment shortfall, and they should aim to pull as many levers as necessary to address this deficit. Instead of having a conversation about desired spending goals, focus the discussion on planning for their more basic needs. Spending less during retirement can have a dramatic impact on their potential ending wealth.

Future actions

Follow a detailed client engagement road map to closely monitor the impact of market changes on portfolio value, ability to reduce or defer spending, the effect of additional income from re-entering the workforce, and any other material changes to personal situations.

For a deeper understanding of how to salvage these retirement plans, it may help to run a more detailed cash-flow analysis in a planning tool with current portfolio values as a base plan. You can create a plan focused on needs first, to determine the potential impact of different asset-allocation options; or based on risk tolerance to assess the feasibility of their spending goals. Utilize Monte Carlo projections to illustrate potential ending wealth ranges. On the basis of the outcome, consider adjusting desired income (withdrawals), savings rate (contributions), portfolio allocations, or some combination of all three to create a viable alternative plan. Then regularly monitor plan status based on changes to circumstances or general market changes. Re-evaluate the plan if the value of the portfolio changes significantly and/or the client re-enters the workforce.

Orange Zone

A client in the Orange Zone faces a material risk of not maintaining their retirement lifestyle. They should take action and understand the potential impact of the available levers on the success of their retirement goals.

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On the basis of the analysis from the Client analyzer, this client is in the Orange Zone.

Retired investors who are in the Orange Zone have only a 70%–80% probability of meeting their spending goals in retirement with a diversified portfolio1. This means they could be at risk of having insufficient assets to meet their future desired spending goals, and they face a material risk of not maintaining their retirement lifestyle.

Since they are no longer working full-time, they may need to rely more heavily on the Spending Lever to improve their funding status.

Investors in this zone should take action and understand the potential impact of the available levers on the success of their retirement goals.

Potential actions

Spending Lever (Potential Flexibility: Moderate)
  • Reduce planned retirement spending.
  • Assess ability and willingness to delay, or possibly eliminate, large expenditures.
Income Lever (Potential Flexibility: Moderate)
  • Seriously consider working part time during retirement, particularly if reduced spending cannot sufficiently repair the plan.
Investment Lever (Potential Flexibility: Low)
  • For investors in the Orange Zone, consider decreasing their equity and increasing their fixed-income allocations to help manage further downside risk. While fixed income has recently offered less capital preservation benefit than at other times, it may still help insulate against the higher volatility of equities. Note that this could come at the cost of giving up future lifestyle potential if markets recover.
  • Along with altering spending and income, the situation may require the annuitization of some or all of the anticipated income need in order to provide a safety net for some of these clients' living expenses. (The guarantee of income, however, is subject to the claims paying ability of the issuing insurance company.)
  • One way to approach this is to calculate the cost of annuitizing a minimum spending floor and to invest the remaining assets. Depending on the cost of the annuity, this could reduce the withdrawal strain on the non-annuitized portion of the portfolio. For example, if an annuity can generate income of 6% for half of the portfolio and the goal is an overall spending rate of 4%, then the non-annuitized portion would need to generate 2% cash flow to maintain the 4% overall rate. Consider this in the context of the other levers' effects.

These potential actions represent only some of the possibilities an investor could choose to manage their retirement plan.

Discussion suggestions

Investors in the Orange Zone need to clearly understand the material gap between their retirement spending plans and what is prudently sustainable. They may have less flexibility with their portfolio since they have less of a wealth cushion, which means they should first take advantage of other options to improve their plan's potential for success.

Given the timing of the market decline in light of their retired status, these clients may wonder about the impact on their portfolio. You can help address which levers to pull and how hard they should be pulled.

For these clients, conversations should focus on the benefit of making tough decisions now, while there may be greater flexibility. Keep in mind, the longterm impact those decisions can make on achieving their desired lifestyle. These conversations should be less about what they may ideally want and more about the choices they need to make.

Follow-up conversations and priorities will depend on the availability of specific levers (i.e., can they adopt part-time work or spend less), along with the potential impact of each decision. For example, if your client is able and willing to work part time for a few years, this extra income may give them a higher probability of meeting their retirement goals without drastically reducing spending.

To be prudent, these clients should take action to make up their investment shortfall by pulling the available levers as necessary. Instead of having a conversation about desired spending goals, focus the discussion on planning for their more basic needs.

If returning to work isn't possible or palatable, investors in this group will need to spend less now, as well as during part or all of retirement. Spending less during retirement can have a dramatic impact on potential ending wealth.

Future actions

Follow a detailed client engagement road map to closely monitor the impact of market changes on portfolio value, ability to reduce or defer spending, the effect of additional income from re-entering the workforce, and any other material changes to personal situations.

For additional assurance, it might help to run a more detailed cash-flow analysis in a planning tool with current portfolio values as a base plan. You can create a plan focused on needs first, to determine the potential impact of different assetallocation options; or based on risk tolerance, to assess the feasibility of their spending goals. Utilize Monte Carlo projections to illustrate potential ending wealth ranges. On the basis of the outcome, consider adjusting desired income (withdrawals), savings rate (contributions), portfolio allocations, or some combination of all three to increase the viability of the plan.

Yellow Zone

With their prime savings years behind them, clients in the Yellow Zone may have less flexibility with their portfolio because they have a smaller wealth cushion. They should consider using other mechanisms or levers to improve the potential for success of their plan.

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On the basis of the analysis from the Client analyzer, this client is in the Yellow Zone.

Retired investors who are in the Yellow Zone may have a 80%–90% chance of meeting their desired spending goals in retirement with a diversified portfolio1. They face a moderate risk of not meeting their expected retirement lifestyle.

With their prime savings years behind them, they may also have less flexibility with their portfolio because they have a smaller wealth cushion. Therefore, they should consider using other mechanisms or levers to improve the potential for success of their plan.

Potential actions

Spending Lever (Potential Flexibility: High)
  • Trim regular spending, at least for the short term.
  • Delay or, if necessary, eliminate large expenditures.
Income Lever (Potential Flexibility: Moderate)
  • Work part time, if possible, to reduce reliance on the investments for income. This may quickly help your clients restore the sustainability of their plan by supplementing portfolio withdrawals.
Investment Lever (Potential Flexibility: Low)
  • For investors in the Yellow Zone who are relatively risk-averse, consider decreasing their equity and increasing their fixed-income allocations to help manage further downside risk. While fixed income has recently offered less capital preservation benefit than at other times, it may still help insulate against the higher volatility of equities. Note that this could come at the cost of giving up future lifestyle potential if markets recover.
  • If investors are highly risk-averse, consider annuitization to meet some or all of their anticipated income needs.

These potential actions represent only some of the possibilities investors can choose to manage their retirement plan.

Discussion suggestions

Since these clients have a moderate probability of meeting their stated goals, discuss actions they could consider taking to increase their comfort level.

While the market may not have affected their future plans as much as they think, any sacrifices they make to reduce their retirement lifestyle choices could further improve their chances of achieving their goals. Focus on managing the things they can control.

Clients in this category face a choice between (1) holding to the current plan, which could improve or degrade with market movements, or (2) making adjustments to further manage their risk. Using the Spending Lever and the Income Lever could constrain their lifestyle to some extent, but these actions offer the most control. Every dollar saved is one that can remain in the portfolio for future spending needs.

Future actions

Follow a detailed client engagement road map to closely monitor the impact of market changes on portfolio value, their ability to reduce or defer spending, the effect of additional income if they re-enter the workforce, and any other material changes to personal situations.

For additional assurance, it may be helpful to run a more detailed cash-flow analysis in a planning tool with current portfolio values as a base plan. You can create a plan focused on needs first, to determine the potential impact of different assetallocation options; or based on risk tolerance, to assess the feasibility of their spending goals. Utilize Monte Carlo projections to illustrate potential ending wealth ranges. On the basis of the outcome, consider adjusting desired income (withdrawals), savings rate (contributions), portfolio allocations, or some combination of all three to further increase the viability of the plan.

Green Zone

A client in the Green Zone is likely in a solid financial position and can more confidently stay the course with their plan. While there is still a chance that future market changes could make the current plan unsustainable, they need to make few, if any, adjustments to their planned retirement date or spending patterns at this time.

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On the basis of the analysis from the Client analyzer, this client is in the Green Zone.

Retired investors in the Green Zone have a high probability (greater than 90%) of achieving their desired spending goals in retirement with a diversified portfolio1, despite the impact of the current market downturn.

These clients can more confidently stay the course with their current plans. While there is still a chance that future market changes could make the current plan unsustainable, they need to make few, if any, adjustments to their planned retirement date or spending patterns at this time.

Potential actions

For investors in Green Zone, it may not be necessary to take action immediately. However, they may want to consider the following to further improve the probability of meeting their goals. (Note that for retired clients, the Spending Lever likely comes before the Income Lever in terms of priority.)

Spending Lever (Potential Flexibility: High)
  • Although these investors have a solid financial status, considering whether any goals could be delayed, should that become advisable, may help to further increase their sense of security.
  • These investors may also want to consider delaying large, planned withdrawals from their portfolios unless they are unavoidable.
Income Lever (Potential Flexibility: Moderate)
  • Working part time is an optional way for these clients to further improve their financial condition.
Investment Lever (Potential Flexibility: Moderate)
  • For investors in the Green Zone who are very sensitive to risk, consider decreasing their equity and increasing their fixed-income allocations to help manage further downside risk. While fixed income has recently offered less capital preservation benefit than at other times, it may still help insulate against the higher volatility of equities. Note that this could come at the cost of giving up future lifestyle potential if markets recover.
  • For those who are willing to accept more market risk for potentially higher returns, boosting their equity allocation may be appropriate. The prudence of doing this will, of course, depend on their current asset allocation, which should be considered carefully so alterations don't jeopardize their current status.

These potential actions represent only some of the possibilities investors can choose to manage their retirement plan.

Discussion suggestions

Investors in the Green Zone should feel a sense of security because there is a high probability of success with their plan.

Compared to most investors, they have flexibility regarding the levers they can pull if they so choose. Despite their relatively solid status, if they find the current market unsettling, they may find relief in considering ways to further manage risk. They could simply view these alternatives as emergency options.

Future actions

Follow a detailed client engagement road map to monitor the impact of market changes on portfolio value, as well as any material changes to personal situations.

While these clients may have a high calculated probability of meeting their stated goals, they could be at their risk tolerance threshold. In such a situation, they may be better off than they feel. The goal of this exercise is to help these clients better understand the reality of their situation.

For a deeper understanding of the viability of their ongoing retirement-spending plans and estate goals, it may be helpful to run a more detailed cash-flow analysis in a planning tool. You can create a plan focused on needs first, to determine the potential impact of different asset-allocation options; or based on risk tolerance, to assess the feasibility of their spending goals. Utilize Monte Carlo projections to illustrate potential ending wealth ranges. On the basis of the outcome, consider adjusting desired income (withdrawals), savings rate (contributions), portfolio allocations, or some combination of all three.

Near retirement (Less than three-years to retirement)

Overview

Select a profile for help talking about the impact of the market downturn on your clients' retirement goals.

Red Zone

A client in the Red Zone may have a large gap between their planned retirement spending and what is actually sustainable. They may face a very serious risk and must take action with regard to their stated goals. Fortunately, their current participation in the workforce may offer flexibility.

Download this profile

On the basis of the analysis from the Client analyzer, this client is in the Red Zone.

Investors who are near retirement and in the Red Zone have less than a 70% probability of achieving their spending goals in retirement with a diversified portfolio1. They probably have a large asset deficit relative to their future expected spending needs, and they may face a very high risk of not achieving their expected retirement lifestyle.

Clients in the Red Zone need to clearly understand that the market impact may have resulted in a large gap between their planned retirement spending and what is actually sustainable.

These clients may face a very serious risk and must take action with regard to their stated goals.

Fortunately, their current participation in the workforce may offer some flexibility.

Potential actions

Income Lever (Potential Flexibility: High)
  • Working full time as long as possible (or until their retirement plan status improves significantly) will reduce reliance on investments for income. This may help to restore sustainable plans by postponing portfolio withdrawals for income needs.
  • If extending full-time work is not feasible, plan to maintain part-time work for a significant portion of the post-retirement horizon.
Spending Lever (Potential Flexibility: High)
  • Significantly reduce expected retirement-spending goals and, if possible, reduce current spending to increase savings if delaying retirement is not possible.
  • Assess ability and willingness to delay, and even possibly eliminate, large expenditures.
Investment Lever (Potential Flexibility: Low)
  • For investors in the Red Zone who are very sensitive to risk, consider decreasing their equity and increasing their fixed-income allocations to help manage further downside risk. While fixed income has recently provided less capital preservation benefit than at other times, it may still help insulate against the higher volatility of equities. Note that this potential protection could come at the cost of giving up future lifestyle choices if markets recover.
  • For clients who cannot delay retirement, you may need to annuitize some or most of their anticipated income need. (The guarantee of this income, however, is subject to the claims paying ability of the issuing insurance company.)
  • One way to approach this is to calculate the cost of annuitizing a minimum spending floor and to invest the remaining assets. Depending on the cost of the annuity, this could take pressure off the non-annuitized portion of the portfolio. For example, if an annuity can generate cash flow of 6% for half of the portfolio and the goal is an overall spending rate of 4%, then the nonannuitized portion would need to generate 2% cash flow to maintain the 4% overall rate. Consider this in the context of the other levers' effects.

These potential actions represent only some of the possibilities investors can choose to manage their retirement plan.

Discussion suggestions

Investors in the Red Zone need to understand the gap between their planned retirement and what is now possible. They may have less flexibility with their portfolio because they have less of a wealth cushion, which means they should first take advantage of other options to improve their plan's potential for success.

For these clients, conversations should focus on the need to make tough decisions and the potential flexibility they have with their stated goals. The tone of these conversations should be less about what they may be considering and more about what they must do.

Discuss client priorities and available levers. Delaying retirement as long as possible, as well as increasing savings rates could help resolve their investment shortfall. If not, discuss essential retirement income needs. Again, instead of having a conversation about retirement lifestyle, talk about the clients' base needs or income floor.

Consider the order of the levers. If the Income Lever is not available or palatable, clients will need to spend less now, as well as during part or all of retirement. If it is possible to spend less now, savings will grow for the next three years. More importantly, spending less during retirement life can have a dramatic impact on potential ending wealth. The potential impact on their plan depends on how far they can pull each lever.

Future actions

Follow a detailed client engagement road map to closely monitor the impact of market changes on portfolio value, the ability to reduce or defer spending, the effect of additional income from continued work, and any other material changes to personal situations. You will also need to help manage expectations regarding a future retirement date, since it could take time to build enough wealth to make that date financially feasible.

For a deeper understanding of what it could take to salvage clients' retirement plans, it may help to run a more detailed cash-flow analysis in a planning tool with current portfolio values as a base plan. You can create a plan focused on needs first, to determine the potential impact of different asset-allocation options; or based on risk tolerance, to assess the feasibility of their spending goals. In this case, the focus will be on either a longer savings horizon due to delaying retirement, or determining the necessary income floor for the investor if a delayed retirement is not possible. Utilize Monte Carlo projections to illustrate potential ending wealth ranges. On the basis of the outcome, consider adjusting desired income (withdrawals), savings rate (contributions), portfolio allocations, or some combination of all three to create an alternative plan.

Orange Zone

A client in the Orange Zone can be at significant risk of not having sufficient assets relative to their future expected spending needs and may not be able to achieve their expected lifestyle in retirement. Investors in this zone will be well served by acting now.

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On the basis of the analysis from the Client analyzer, this client is in the Orange Zone.

Investors who are near retirement and in the Orange Zone have a 70%–80% probability of meeting their spending goals in retirement with a diversified portfolio1.

This means they could be at significant risk of not having sufficient assets to meet their future expected spending needs, and they may not be able to achieve their expected retirement lifestyle.

Investors in this zone really must act now. Fortunately, their current participation in the workforce may offer a margin of flexibility.

Potential actions

Income Lever (Potential Flexibility: High)
  • Working full time as long as possible (or until their retirement plan status improves significantly) will reduce reliance on the investments for income. This could quickly help clients maintain sustainable plans by minimizing portfolio withdrawals for income needs.
  • Save as much as possible (e.g., the maximum allowed into retirement accounts).
  • If extending full-time work is not feasible, working part time, particularly during the early retirement years, may ease portfolio withdrawals enough to improve the odds of maintaining the desired retirement lifestyle.
Spending Lever (Potential Flexibility: High)
  • Reduce planned retirement spending goals, perhaps significantly, if delaying retirement is not possible.
  • Assess ability and willingness to delay, and even possibly eliminate, large expenditures.
Investment Lever (Potential Flexibility: Low)
  • If investors in the Orange Zone are very sensitive to risk, consider decreasing their equity and increasing their fixed-income allocations to help manage further downside risk. While fixed income has recently offered less capital preservation benefit than at other times, it may still help insulate against the higher volatility of equities. Note that this could come at the cost of giving up future lifestyle potential if markets recover.

These potential actions represent only some of the possibilities investors can choose to manage their retirement plan.

Discussion suggestions

Given the timing of the market decline relative to their desired retirement date, these clients may be at risk before they enter retirement. They should reassess their goals and understand the potentially great impact of using the available levers to adjust their plan. The question is not whether they should pull a lever, but which one, or which combination of levers should be used.

Investors in the Orange Zone need to clearly understand that there could be a material gap between their desired retirement plans and what is financially sustainable.

Conversations should be about the benefit of making tough decisions now, while there is greater flexibility, and the long-term impact of those decisions. The tone of these conversations is typically less about what clients may ideally want and more about the choices they need to make.

To be prudent, these clients should make up their shortfall by pulling the necessary levers. Delaying retirement as long as possible combined with increasing savings could quickly resolve shortfall. If they are not able or unwilling to make these adjustments, then your conversation with them should center on reducing spending. Spending less over their retirement life can have a dramatic impact on their potential ending wealth. Focus on each client's minimum retirement-income requirements and how they will meet those needs.

Future actions

Follow a detailed client engagement road map to closely monitor the impact of market changes on portfolio value, ability to reduce or defer spending, the effect of additional income from continuing to work as long as possible, and any other material changes to personal situations. You'll also need to help manage expectations regarding a future retirement date, since it could take time to build enough wealth to make that date financially feasible.

For a deeper understanding of what it could take to salvage clients' retirement plans, it might help to run a more detailed cash-flow analysis in a planning tool using current portfolio values as a base plan. You can create a plan focused on needs first, to determine the potential impact of different asset-allocation options; or based on risk tolerance, to assess the feasibility of their spending goals. For example, if the client is able to delay retirement for three years, this affects both the savings rate and the withdrawals they expected to take during the next three years. Utilize Monte Carlo projections to illustrate potential ending wealth ranges. On the basis of the outcome, consider adjusting desired income (withdrawals), savings rate (contributions), portfolio allocations, or some combination of all three to create a viable alternative plan.

Yellow Zone

A client in the Yellow Zone faces a moderate risk of not fulfilling their lifestyle expectations in retirement. Their current participation in the workforce provides them with more options to improve the status of their plan and further mitigate this risk.

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On the basis of the analysis from the Client analyzer, this client is in the Yellow Zone.

Investors who are near retirement and in the Yellow Zone have an 80%–90% chance of meeting their desired retirement-spending goals with a diversified portfolio1. Thus, they face a moderate risk of not fulfilling their expected retirement lifestyle.

Additionally, their current participation in the workforce provides even more options for improving the status of their retirement-spending plan.

Potential actions

Although investors in the Yellow Zone face only moderate risk, they might further mitigate this risk by considering some of the following actions.

Income Lever (Potential Flexibility: High)
  • Extending full-time work past an expected retirement age is a powerful way to improve retirement sustainability. Delaying retirement would more than likely have the greatest impact on an investment plan. If possible, this should be a first priority.
  • If a client doesn't want to continue working full time, working part time could also improve retirement sustainability.
Spending Lever (Potential Flexibility: High)
  • Clients in this category may consider pulling this lever if the “Income Lever” (continued employment) is not available or doesn't sufficiently improve the probability that they will meet desired spending goals. In such a case, consider trimming planned retirement spending goals, which may mean a permanent budget adjustment.
  • A possible one-off option may be delaying large expenditures until plan success measures improve.
Investment Lever (Potential Flexibility: Low)
  • For Yellow Zone investors who are very sensitive to risk, consider decreasing their equity and increasing their fixed-income allocations to help manage further downside risk. While fixed income has recently offered less capital preservation benefit than at other times, it may still help insulate against the higher volatility of equities. Note that this could come at the cost of giving up future lifestyle potential if markets recover.
  • Otherwise, maintain the current risk profile if it is appropriate for their circumstances. Over time, this may improve the viability of their longer-term lifestyle spending goals.

These potential actions represent only some of the possibilities investors can choose to manage their retirement plan.

Discussion suggestions

Investors in the Yellow Zone should understand that while their plans have a reasonable probability of success, success is not assured, and some shortterm adjustments could improve their sense of long-term security.

Given the timing of the current market decline relative to their desired retirement dates, these investors know their portfolio may have been affected. Depending on their available assets and income needs, they may or may not be as affected as they think. Compared to many investors, they may have more flexibility. If they are still very nervous about the impact of future market downturns on their retirement plans, it may be a good idea to use the Income and Spending Levers to improve their sense of security.

Conversations should be about making modest sacrifices now, while there is greater flexibility, in order to improve their opportunity to meet their long-term goals. The tone of these conversations is about the choices they face.

The next step is to discuss priorities and the impact of each lever. For example, if your clients in this zone are able and willing to work longer than originally planned, this income stream combined with an increased savings rate will likely offer them a higher probability of meeting their retirement goals without reducing spending during retirement.

Consider the order of the levers. If the Income Lever is not available or palatable, these investors may need to spend less now, as well as adjust their spending expectations during part or all of retirement. If it is possible to spend less now, they'll increase savings for the short term. More importantly, spending less in retirement can have a dramatic impact on their potential ending wealth. The potential impact on their plan depends on how far they can pull each lever, for example, how much they can reduce spending and increase savings.

Future actions

Monitor the impact of market changes on portfolio value, measure willingness to reduce or defer spending, calculate the effect of additional income from remaining in the workforce longer, and include any other material changes to personal situations.

For a deeper understanding of the available choices and their potential consequences, it may be helpful to run a more detailed cash-flow analysis in a planning tool using current portfolio values as a base plan. You can create a plan focused on needs first, to determine the potential impact of different asset-allocation options; or based on risk tolerance, to assess the feasibility of their spending goals. For example, you could illustrate the impact of reducing spending during the first three years of retirement as compared to reducing spending during all of retirement. Utilize Monte Carlo projections to illustrate potential ending wealth ranges. On the basis of the outcome, consider adjusting desired income (withdrawals), savings rate (contributions), portfolio allocations, or some combination of all three to create a viable alternative plan.

Green Zone

A client in the Green Zone is likely in a sound financial position. While there is still a chance that future market changes could make their current plan unsustainable, they need to make few, if any, adjustments at this time.

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On the basis of the analysis from the Client analyzer, this investor is in the Green Zone.

Investors who are near retirement and in the Green Zone have a very high probability (greater than 90%) of achieving their expected retirement lifestyle with a diversified portfolio1, despite the impact of the current market downturn.

These clients can more confidently stay the course. While there is still a chance that future market changes could make their current plan unsustainable, they need to make few, if any, adjustments now to their planned retirement date or spending patterns.

Potential actions

For investors in the Green Zone, immediate action may not be necessary. However, they may want to consider the following suggestions to further improve their chances of meeting their goals.

Income Lever (Potential Flexibility: High)
  • Delaying retirement or working part time during retirement are optional ways to further improve the financial condition for these investors.
Spending Lever (Potential Flexibility: High)
  • Although these investors have a solid financial base, it may further increase their sense of security to consider whether any future annual spending goals could be reduced.
  • Investors in this category may also want to consider delaying large, planned withdrawals from their portfolios.
Investment Lever (Potential Flexibility: Moderate)
  • If investors are very sensitive to risk, consider decreasing their equity and increasing their fixed income allocations to help manage further downside risk. While fixed income has recently offered less capital preservation benefit than at other times, it may still help insulate against the higher volatility of equities. Note that this could come at the cost of giving up future lifestyle potential if markets recover.
  • For those who are willing to accept more market risk for potentially higher returns, boosting their equity allocation may be appropriate. The prudence of doing this will, of course, depend on their current asset allocation, which should be considered carefully so alterations don't jeopardize their current status.

These potential actions represent only some of the possibilities investors can choose to manage their retirement plan.

Discussion suggestions

Investors in the Green Zone should feel a sense of security because there is a high probability of success with their plan.

While this analysis shows these clients are on track to meet their goals, they could be at the threshold of their risk tolerance. If so, they are probably better off than they feel, so your goal as their advisor is to help these clients better understand their situation.

Compared to most investors, these Green Zone clients have a great deal of flexibility. Despite their relatively solid status, if they find the current market unsettling, they may find relief in considering ways to further manage risk. They could simply view these alternatives as emergency options.

Future actions

Monitor the impact of market changes on the value of their portfolio, as well as any material changes to their personal situation.

For a deeper understanding of the viability of their retirement-spending plans and estate goals, it may be helpful to run a more detailed cash-flow analysis in a planning tool. You can create a plan focused on needs first, to determine the potential impact of different asset-allocation options; or based on risk tolerance, to assess the feasibility of their spending goals. Utilize Monte Carlo projections to illustrate potential ending wealth ranges. On the basis of the outcome, consider adjusting desired income (withdrawals), savings rate (contributions), portfolio allocations, or some combination of all three.

Footnotes

1 When determining probabilities of success and corresponding color zones for portfolio, the Client Analyzer models portfolios ranging from 20% Equity and 80% Fixed Income to 80% Equity and 20% Fixed Income. Each portfolio is assumed to be broadly diversified at both the asset class and security levels.

Important Information

The Client Analyzer application used to help determine which of the advice profiles most closely approximates a client's situation relies on various statistical and modeling techniques, including Monte Carlo simulation (Methodology & Limitations), to produce hypothetical projections. The projections or other information generated by the Client Analyzer regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results.

Monte Carlo simulation methodology

Monte Carlo Simulation generates a broad range of hypothetical investments scenarios designed to better reflect the actual volatility and randomness of the financial markets which are not fully addressed by using simple average return assumptions. In this approach, each scenario randomly models one potential investment path containing a string of positive or negative, small-to-large hypothetical investment returns.

The modeling used by the Client Analyzer considers 5,000 scenarios for each year simulated. These simulations model investment performance for a set of asset classes to estimate how each might impact a portfolio over a specified time period. These simulations are designed to reflect the forecasted volatility of investment markets and other economic variables. This analysis is not meant to serve as a direct prediction regarding the future performance of your clients' investments or the income and capital gains that they might produce. Similarly, it is not intended to predict or guarantee future investment performance of any sort. It is important to remember that this process is based on assumptions that may not reflect the behavior of actual events. For example, Monte Carlo Simulation may not fully account for certain rare and extreme market catastrophes which fall outside normal expectations.

Monte Carlo Simulation relies upon key assumptions about the risk and return behavior of asset classes. The asset class forecasts used for simulation data shown in this calculator are created using Russell Investments' proprietary models that incorporate historical data from market and economic indexes. The historical index data used are from the CRSP Market Cap Series (US Equity), Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index (Fixed Income), MSCI All Country World Index (Non-US Equity), and the NAREIT Equity REIT Index (Real Estate). Indexes are unmanaged and do not reflect the deduction of management fees, and cannot be invested in directly. Index return information is provided by vendors and although deemed reliable, is not guaranteed by Russell or its affiliates. Russell's capital markets forecasts are typically updated twice a year in January and July. Because assumptions about the capital markets evolve over time, results of the calculations may vary over time. Your actual experience may be different than the Russell capital markets forecast.

The simulation process uses the following assumptions:

  • The portfolio is invested in one of the following asset allocations, as selected by the advisor:
    Conservative
    20% equities and 80% fixed income (12.4% U.S. Equity, 6.2% Non-U.S. Equity, 1.4% Real Estate, and 80% Fixed Income)
    Moderate
    40% equities and 60% fixed income (24.8% U.S. Equity, 12.4% Non-U.S. Equity, 2.8% Real Estate, and 60% Fixed Income)
    Balanced
    60% equities and 40% fixed income (37.2% U.S. Equity, 18.6% Non-U.S. Equity, 4.2% Real Estate, and 40% Fixed Income)
    Growth
    80% equities and 20% fixed income (49.6% U.S. Equity, 24.8% Non-U.S. Equity, 5.6% Real Estate, and 20% Fixed Income)
  • The portfolio is based on December 31, 2008 asset class assumptions and is rebalanced annually. As of the most recent update, the 20-year expected annualized return for each portfolio are: Conservative 5.0%, Moderate 5.8%, Balanced 6.7%, and Growth 7.6%. Your actual investment results may be better or worse than those shown. The broad asset classes above are used because they represent typical asset categories used in diversified investing. Other investment mixes not considered may have characteristics similar or superior to those being analyzed.
  • The portfolio consists of well-diversified investments within the various asset classes. Diversification does not assure a profit and does not protect against loss in declining markets.
  • All withdrawals are considered to be pre-tax without regard to the investors' tax situation. Any taxes owed (if any) are assumed to be paid out of the withdrawals and/or any Income from Other Sources that is entered.
  • Spending Gap is funded by withdrawals from the portfolio. These withdrawals are indexed to consumer price inflation each year.
  • Time horizon is assumed to be the rest of investor's life and is modeled in two stages to account for mortality risk. Stage 1 incorporates a fixed time horizon based on median life expectancy according to actuarial tables. Stage 2 incorporates a variable time horizon also based on actuarial tables. Source of actuarial tables: Society of Actuaries, U.S. Basic Individual Annuitant 2000 Table.
  • In Stage 1 the simulation process models the inflationindexed withdrawals from the portfolio. Then at the end of Stage 1 it models the cost to purchase an immediate life annuity providing inflation-indexed income over the second stage.
  • The Probability of Success measure is based on the percentage of scenarios for which the portfolio value at the end of the first stage is greater than or equal to the estimated second-stage annuitization cost.

The length of the first stage is determined as follows: If the investor Age is less than 80, then the first-stage horizon is 20 years; otherwise it is 10 years. The length of the second stage depends on the Marital Status of the investor. If single, it is for the lifetime of the individual. If married, it is for the lifetime of both individuals (i.e., the last to die). Married individuals are both assumed to be the same age. If they are of different ages, it is generally recommended to enter the younger person's age for the analysis.

Similarly, the Future Portfolio Balance is computed at the first-stage horizon. If the investor Age is less than 80, this is 20 years; otherwise it is 10 years.

The use of this methodology is not a recommendation for annuitization at any particular time, but rather is simply a means for measuring the likelihood of sustainability of a spending plan.

Percentile values, including the Median which is the 50th Percentile, are solely for comparison purposes. These values can be used to compare relative probabilities of different outcomes. 80% of the simulated outcomes fall between the 10th and 90th percentiles. The 10th Percentile corresponds to wealth values in which 90% of the simulated cases exceed this level and only 10% fall below. It reflects simulated results assuming a series of extremely poor market conditions. Remember that it is possible to lose the entire value of a portfolio. A different set of assumptions would create a different probability distribution. Expert opinion regarding expected returns, volatility and market trends vary widely.

  • The color-coded labels associated with these percentage ranges are based on Russell's judgment of what constitutes a reasonable probability of success for different profiles.
Asset Class Assumptions

Expectations are created with proprietary models incorporating historical index data for the CRSP Market Cap Series (U.S. Equity), Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index (Fixed Income), MSCI All Country World Index (Non-U.S. Equity) and NAREIT Equity REIT Index (Real Estate).

Indexes are unmanaged, and do not reflect the deduction of any management fees, and cannot be invested in directly. They are provided for general comparison purposes only. Index performance is not indicative of any specific investment, and should not be viewed as a representation of future results. Deductions for fees and expenses are not reflected in index returns. If they were deducted, returns would be lower. Index return information is provided by vendors and although deemed reliable, is not guaranteed by Russell or its affiliates.

20-year annualized asset class assumptions as of December 31, 2008
Correlation*
Asset Classes Expected Return Standard Deviation US Equity Non-US Equity Real Estate Fixed Income Inflation
US Equity 8.5% 17.6% 1.00        
Non-US Equity 8.5% 20.1% 0.74 1.00      
Real Estate 7.3% 15.4% 0.52 0.43 1.00    
Fixed Income 4.1% 4.2% 0.20 0.18 0.10 1.00  
Inflation 2.0% 3.4% 0.14 0.15 0.00 0.61 1.00

*Correlation coefficients, which can range from 1.0 to -1.0, measure the degree to which the movements of two variables are related. A correlation coefficient of 1.0 means that two variables move in a completely synchronized manner, while -1.0 means they move completely opposite. A coefficient of zero means that the movements are completely unrelated. Combining asset classes with lower or negative correlations may help reduce the volatility of a portfolio's returns over time.

Asset Class and Index definitions
Asset Classes
U.S. Equity
Investment in U.S. company stocks. Stock represents ownership and control in a corporation and may pay dividends as well as appreciate or depreciate in value. The value of a stock will rise and fall in response to the activities of the company that issued it, general market conditions, and economic conditions.
Non-U.S. Equity
Investment in non-U.S. stocks. Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation. Such securities may be less liquid and more volatile. Investments in emerging or developing markets involve exposure to economic structures that are generally less diverse and mature than, and political systems with less stability than those in more developed countries.
Fixed Income
A government, municipal or corporate bond that pays a fixed rate of interest until the bond matures, or a preferred stock that pays a fixed dividend. Bond investors should carefully consider risks such as interest rate, credit, repurchase and reverse purchase transaction risks. Greater risk, such as increased volatility, limited liquidity, prepayment, non-payment and increased default risk, is inherent in portfolios that invest in high-yield (“junk”) bonds or mortgage-backed securities, especially mortgage-backed securities with exposure to sub-prime mortgages.
Real Estate
A Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) invests in real estate loans (mortgages and trust deeds) and/or has equity interests in real estate. Specific sector investing, such as real estate, can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments. Declines in the value of real estate, changes in economic conditions, property taxes, tax laws, and interest rates all present potential risks to real estate investments.
Indexes
Market Index
A market index is a group of assets traded on a particular investment market, and a statistic reflecting the composite value of those component assets. It is used as a tool to represent the characteristics of its components, all of which bear some commonality such as trading on the same exchange, belonging to the same industry, or having similar capitalizations. Many indexes compiled by news or financial services firms are used to benchmark the performance of investment portfolios.
Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) Market Cap Series (total return)
New York Stock Exchange companies ranked by market cap on the last trading day of each quarter.
Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index
An index with income reinvested, generally representative of intermediate-term government bonds, investment grade corporate debt securities, and mortgage-backed securities.
Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) All Country World Free, ex-U.S. Total Return Index
An index with dividends reinvested, representative of the securities markets of 49 developed and emerging market countries.
NAREIT Equity REIT Index
An index with dividends reinvested, representative of tax-qualified REITs listed on the New York Stock Exchange, American Stock Exchange, and the NASDAQ National Market System.
Key Limitations
  • In addition to the client inputs, the Analyzer uses hypothetical estimates of future market conditions based upon Russell asset class assumptions. It also uses actuarial mortality estimates. Both sets of assumptions may change over time. This analysis is not meant to serve as a direct prediction regarding the future performance of your assets, the income and capital gains that they might produce, or the ability to sustain a spending plan over the entire retirement period. Similarly, they are in no way intended to predict or guarantee future investment performance of any sort.
  • Financial Professionals and investors are in the best position to determine the suitability and fitness of any investment strategies, asset allocations or securities purchases or sales decisions following the use of the Retirement Analyzer. Russell Investments does not create, endorse or provide investment advice.
  • Actual combinations of underlying assets selected should depend upon your client's investment objectives and goals. All personal client information used by the Client Analyzer has not been verified by Russell Investment. Russell Investments or its affiliates make no representations regarding the results that are dependent upon such information and hereby disclaim all warranties related to information and results are dependent hereon, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose.
  • Nothing contained in this material is intended to constitute Russell's legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The general information contained in this publication should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional. Nothing contained herein is an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to purchase any security or the services of any person or organization.
  • Russell's capital market forecasts are adjusted periodically, typically twice a year in January and July. Actual experience may be different.
  • This analysis assumes the portfolio asset allocation is maintained for the entire length of the first stage (a “constant asset allocation strategy”), with annual rebalancing.
  • The analysis does not consider the return and risk differences due to holding a highly concentrated position, nor how long a security has been held. Other asset allocation weightings may produce significantly different results, as may the use of other asset classes and investments not considered in this analysis.
  • Other asset classes or investments not considered in this analysis may produce different results. There also may be other considerations pertinent to your client's situation that have not been addressed, including, but not limited to, market conditions, the tax position of their assets or cash flows, or other available assets, such as personal real estate or other investments not included in this analysis.
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Important information and disclosures

Forecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.

This hypothetical example if for illustration only and is not intended to reflect the return of any actual investment.

The information, analyses and opinions set forth herein are intended to serve as general information only and should not be relied upon by any individual or entity as advice or recommendations specific to that individual entity. It is not intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Anyone using this material should consult with their own attorney, accountant, financial or tax or consultants on whom they rely for investment advice specific to their own circumstances.

Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. Investments do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth.

There are no assurances that the investment goals and objectives stated in this material will be met.

This is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to purchase any security or the services of any organization.

This material contains information concerning investments other than those offered by Russell Investment Group, its affiliates or subsidiaries. Annuity products are not offered by Russell Investments. Neither Russell nor its affiliates are responsible for investment decisions made with respect to such investments or for the accuracy or completeness of information about such investments. For information regarding such investments, contact your investment advisor.

Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.

Diversification and strategic asset allocation do not assure profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market.

Russell Investment Group, a Washington USA corporation, operates through subsidiaries worldwide, including Russell Investments, and is a subsidiary of The Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Company.

The Russell logo is a trademark and service mark of Russell Investments.

Russell Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA (www.finra.org), part of Russell Investments.

First used January 2009
Revised September 2009
RFS 09-2356