United States

Go to the UK site

Contact us:
service@russell.com 800-787-7354
Site Navigation

Core inflation (PCE PI)

ECONOMIC INDICATOR

Historical graph of the Core Inflation

To view the interactive version of the Core inflation (PCE PI), JavaScript must be enabled and you need the latest version of the Adobe Flash Player.

What is it?

  • The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE PI) measures the average price increase for American consumers on an annualized basis. It excludes food and energy prices, which tend to be volatile from month-to-month. It also allows for consumer substitution of more expensive goods for cheaper goods, which the Consumer Price Index (CPI) does not. It is the preferred lagging inflation measure of the Federal Reserve.

Why is it important?

  • Core inflation was added during the September 15, 2009 update, because we believe it is a key economic issue, especially when coming out of a recession.
  • The core PCE PI indicates how prices have changed from month-to-month.
  • A change in inflation indicates a change in ability to consume and in the real return to investments.
  • High inflation can have a detrimental impact on investment.
  • Deflation (<0%) can cause spending to dry up.
  • This metric bears watching as the Federal Reserve infuses money into the economy.

How do we interpret it?

  • An increase in the inflation rate generally indicates that the rate of price increases has picked up.
  • A decrease in the inflation rate means the rate of price increases has slowed down.

Typical historical range

  • As of December 2012, 90% of month-end readings for the core PCE PI change have ranged from 1.10% to 6.70%.
Footnotes

The source of our data is Bloomberg.

What's the state of the economy?

Economic Indicators Dashboard

Article actions
Dashboard Updates
Next update June 22

Subscribe to updates

Enter your email below to be notified of Dashboard updates

e.g. yourname@company.com

We will only use your email address for Dashboard updates.

About Russell.com/Helping-Advisors

This site is brought to you by Russell Investments — helping advisors serve clients and build successful practices since 1988. Russell believes that investors are best served by qualified financial advisors.

Learn more about Russell Investments

Important information and disclosures

Data stated is historical and not a guarantee of future results.

Russell Investments or its affiliates make no representations regarding the data that results dependent upon such information and hereby disclaim all warranties related to information and results are dependent hereon, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose.

Data displayed in the Economic Indicators Dashboard are reflective of current data as provided by the data sources including any revisions to previous data. These revisions may change historic data points and historic ranges for some or all indicators. These changes are usually due to seasonal adjustments to previously supplied data.

The information, analyses and opinions set forth herein are intended to serve as general information only and should not be relied upon by any individual or entity as advice or recommendations specific to that individual entity. It is not intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Anyone using this material should consult with their own attorney, accountant, financial or tax or consultants on whom they rely for investment advice specific to their own circumstances.

This analysis is not meant to serve as a direct prediction regarding the future performance of any economic or financial market. Similarly, they are in no way intended to predict or guarantee future investment performance of any sort. Other economic or financial market indictors not considered in this analysis may produce different results.

This analysis represents an economic analysis utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.

The Russell 3000® Index measures the performance of the largest 3,000 U.S. companies representing approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market.

Indexes shown are economic indicators and are for comparative purposes only. They are not meant to represent any actual investment. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.

This is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to purchase any security or the services of any organization.

Please remember that all investment markets carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative returns.

Diversification and strategic asset allocation do not assure profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market.

Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.

Russell Investment Group, a Washington USA corporation, operates through subsidiaries worldwide, including Russell Investments, and is a subsidiary of The Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Company.

The Russell logo is a trademark and service mark of Russell Investments.

Russell Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA (www.finra.org), part of Russell Investments.

First used September 2009
Revised May 2013

RFS 10804