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Russell Indexes |
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The European equity market as reflected by the Russell Developed Europe Index returned 29% since the completion of the Russell Indexes 2012 annual reconstitution, the annual rebalancing of the Russell Global Indexes, on June 25, 2012 to May 17, 2013, with dynamic stocks as reflected by the Russell Developed Europe Dynamic Index significantly outperforming defensive stocks as reflected by the Russell Developed Europe Defensive Index for the same time period.
This is despite recent reports indicating that Eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the first quarter of 2013, the sixth straight quarter in a row and by all reports the longest postwar recession for the region. Within the Russell Developed Europe Index, Greece (67.8%) has been the top performing country constituent since last year’s Russell Indexes reconstitution, followed by Austria (35.9%) and Finland (35.8%). Luxembourg (10.5%), the Netherlands (21.3%) and the United Kingdom (23.7%) have been the bottom performing country constituents in the Index for this time period. Russell Indexes recently announced that Greece will be reclassified from a Developed to an Emerging market country at the conclusion of this year’s Russell Indexes reconstitution in June. In Russell Investments recently released quarterly Strategists’ Barometer, Russell Investments Europe investment strategist Wouter Sturkenboom commented on the economic outlook for Europe: “The Eurozone has not done itself any favours so far in 2013; a fitting metaphor is that of a pile of sand on which new grains are continuously falling. Eventually, the pile becomes unstable and one new grain may cause an avalanche. The Cypriot deal is instructive. It required budget cuts and a reorganisation of the banking sector that imposed big losses on bondholders and depositors. This action reaffirms our belief that the Eurozone will hold the line in 2013. What has also become clear, however, is that German willingness to use taxpayer money to bail out countries and/or banks appear to be waning, probably to some degree because of their upcoming elections in September. However, the fact that officials are presenting the Cypriot deal as a template for future bailouts is important as it will shift the perception of deposit and senior bond holders regarding the safety of their holdings. We believe if anything this increases “tail risks” in the peripheral markets. Financial contagion could result if capital begins to flee from riskier markets. “With the corruption scandal in Spain, political developments in Italy, and the handling of the Cypriot bail-out it has certainly added a few grains in 2013. Our growth outlook therefore remains negative; we would need to see an improved situation led by Germany and global growth for the investment prospects in the Eurozone to improve.” Russell Index Returns Source: Russell Investments. Returns are euro-denominated.
Within the Russell Developed Europe Index, country constituent Belgium has one constituent with more than a 50% weighting and Denmark has one constituent with more than a 40% weighting, so individual returns for these countries not included in this analysis. Opinions expressed by Mr. Sturkenboom reflect market performance and observations as of May 17th, 2013 and are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions without notice. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The European equity market as reflected by the Russell Developed Europe Index returned 26% since the completion of the Russell Indexes 2012 annual reconstitution, the annual rebalancing of the Russell Global Indexes, on June 25, 2012 to May 7, 2013, with dynamic stocks as reflected by the Russell Developed Europe Dynamic Index significantly outperforming defensive stocks as reflected by the Russell Developed Europe Defensive Index for the same time period. Since the start of 2013, defensive stocks have led within the Index, with the Russell Developed Europe Defensive Index outperforming the Russell Developed Europe Dynamic Index year-to-date as of May 7. Within the Russell Developed Europe Index, Greece (40.1%) has been the top performing country constituent since last year’s Russell Indexes reconstitution, followed by Portugal (38.6%) and Spain (37.4%). Luxembourg (7.7%), the Netherlands (17.5%) and the United Kingdom (19.6%) have been the bottom performing country constituents in the Index for this time period. "While we have seen positive performance in the European equity markets over the past year, the European economy continues to face challenges. And despite Mario Draghi's assertion at last week’s press conference that the ECB is looking at monetary actions to stimulate the European economy, we believe this is very much in a preliminary stage and substantial obstacles need to be overcome before a precise description on what will be done can be given," said Wouter Sturkenboom, investment strategist at Russell Investments Europe. "It is no surprise in this environment that, despite European markets continued upward march, defensive-oriented stocks have outpaced dynamic-oriented stocks within the Russell Developed Europe Index year-to-date, indicating more caution on the part of investors." Russell Index returns Source: Russell Investments. Returns are denominated in euros.
The U.S. small-cap equity market as reflected by the Russell 2000 Index returned 24.7% since the completion of the Russell Indexes 2012 annual reconstitution on June 25, 2012 through May 3, 2013, with dynamic stocks as reflected by the Russell 2000® Dynamic Index outperforming defensive stocks as reflected by the Russell 2000® Defensive Index for the same time period. Within the Russell 2000 Index, while dynamic stocks have outpaced defensive stocks since last year’s reconstitution, defensive stocks have narrowed the gap in more recent time periods, including the second quarter of 2013 through May 3 where defensive stocks just slightly underperformed dynamic, and the week of April 29-May 3, in which defensive stocks actually outperformed dynamic stocks within the Index. The Technology (+3.8%) and Energy (+3.7%) sectors showed the strongest returns in the week ended May 3, a week in which the Russell 2000 Index reached a new historical all-time high. Consumer sectors have led the Index for the year-to-date as of May 3, with the Consumer Discretionary (+17.4%) and Consumer Staples (+15.7%) sectors showing the strongest returns. The Consumer Discretionary sector was one of the stronger performing sectors in each period shown, even as leadership moved from dynamic to defensive stocks, highlighting the resilience of the U.S. consumer even as economic growth remains moderate. "As we approach the closely watched annual rebalancing of the Russell Global Indexes and the U.S. equity market continues to reach new all-time highs, it is important for investors to have the most relevant and objective market proxy possible,” said David Koenig, CFA, FRM, investment strategist with Russell Indexes. “The push-and-pull scenario of defensive- and dynamic-oriented stocks within the Russell 2000 Index over the last year helps illustrate the need for investors to have an index analysis tool that accurately measures and tracks the changing dynamics of the market." Russell Index returns Source: Russell Investments. Returns are denominated in US dollars.
The U.S. large-cap equity market as reflected by the Russell 1000 Index returned 21.5% since the completion of the Russell Indexes 2012 annual reconstitution on June 25, 2012 through April 26, 2013, with dynamic stocks as reflected by the Russell 1000® Dynamic Index™ slightly outperforming defensive stocks as reflected by the Russell 1000® Defensive Index™ for the same time period. Within the Russell 1000 Index, while dynamic stocks have outpaced defensive stocks since last year's reconstitution, defensive stocks have outperformed in more recent time periods, including the first quarter of 2013, 2013 year-to-date and for the month of April as of April 26. And traditionally defensive sectors have led for the year-to-date as of April 26, with the Healthcare (+20.1%), Consumer Staples (+18.1%) and Utilities (+17.5%) sectors showing the strongest returns. Top performing companies with the Russell 1000 Index since the completion of the 2012 Russell Indexes reconstitution (June 25th) through April 26 include consumer discretionary company NetFlix (+217.6%), utility provider Clearwire Corp. (+186.7%) and consumer staples company Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (+173.6%). The bottom three performing companies within the Index for this same time period were materials & processing company Molycorp Inc. (-74.2%), consumer discretionary company ITT Educational Services Inc. (-68.05%) and energy provider Walter Energy Inc. (-62.1%). "At the halfway point of earnings season, the U.S. equity market's return has been strong, but in an increasingly defensive way, as shown by the Russell 1000 Index," said Stephen Wood, Chief Market Strategist at Russell Investments. "The year-to-date outperformance of the Russell 1000 Defensive Index over the Russell 1000 Dynamic Index, combined with the strong performance by traditionally defensive sectors suggests an undercurrent of this broad market rally that has run hard in 2013. As such, we remain ‘guarded' - while simultaneously ‘observant' for opportunities; we think that a patient approach on the part of investors is warranted. We expect volatility and correlations, in the face of largely unchanged fundamentals, to present an environment that may favor security selection and a multi-asset approach." Russell Index / Index sector returns Russell Index constituent returns Source: Russell Investments. Returns are denominated in US dollars.
Eurozone investors appear to have continued to invest defensively in 2013, highlighted by the Russell Eurozone Defensive Index which has outperformed the Russell Eurozone Dynamic Index by nearly 3% year-to-date as of April 30. As the European Central Bank (ECB) prepares to meet today in Bratislava, with a decision expected on interest rates, the defensive component of the Russell Eurozone Index has continued to lead performance. Within the Russell Eurozone Index, Portugal (13.3%) has been the top performing country constituent year-to-date as of April 30, followed by Ireland (12.1%) and Finland (9.3%). Luxembourg (-5.3%), Austria (1.6%) and Italy (3.3%) have been the bottom performing country constituents in the Index year-to-date as of April 30. "We continue to muddle through in the Eurozone as evidenced by recent less than stellar economic reports, with inflation hitting a three-year low and unemployment in Europe hitting new records. All this helps feed speculation that the ECB will cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting," said Wouter Sturkenboom, investment strategist at Russell Investments Europe. "And even though Russell Eurozone Index performance has been positive year-to-date, Russell Eurozone Defensive Index returns appear to indicate a continued cautious stance by Eurozone investors and it remains to be seen whether ECB monetary policy actions will be impactful enough for the markets." Russell Indexes Returns Source: Russell Investments. Returns are denominated in euros. Within the Russell Eurozone Index, country constituent Belgium has one constituent with more than a 50% weighting, so its individual performance is not included in this analysis. Opinions expressed by Mr. Sturkenboom reflect market performance and observations as of April 30th, 2013 and are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions without notice. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. The Russell Emerging Markets Index is down (-1.1%) year-to-date as of April 23rd. One contributing factor may be the performance of its BRIC country constituents Brazil, Russia, India & China, all which have had negative year-to-date returns. And all BRIC country constituents except Brazil underperformed the Index for this same time period. Other negative year-to-date country constituents within the Index as of April 23rd included Korea (-6.4%), Colombia (-6.8%), Egypt (-9.0%), South Africa (-9.4%) and Poland (-10.5%). On the other side of the spectrum, country constituents the United Arab Emirates (+31.7%), the Philippines (+22.5%) and Thailand (+20.1%) have all enjoyed strong returns year-to-date as of April 23rd relative to the Index. "The BRIC nations have faced challenges, notably more mixed economic data out of China where the new political regime looks to establish credibility. And Korea's performance thus far this year as shown by the Russell Emerging Markets Index appears to demonstrate the role that political uncertainty and fluctuations in global currencies can play in local market sentiment and investment performance," said Scott Crawshaw, emerging markets portfolio manager for Russell Investments. "And while emerging markets can present additional risks not found in developed markets, it is important to remember the important role these markets can play within a multi-asset portfolio from a diversification and return perspective. When you are seeking exposure to emerging markets, it is important to work with a global asset manager with the insight and capabilities to help you evaluate these opportunities and put them into a broader multi-asset portfolio context." Russell Indexes performance Source: Russell Investments. Returns are euro-denominated. Russell Indexes to Reclassify Greece From Developed to Emerging Market
You can find more background on the analysis which led to the reclassification of Greece to an emerging market in a paper entitled Greece: Re-emerged and a video, available on the Reconstitution webpage.
Russell Emerging Markets Index country constituents Hungary, the Czech Republic and Peru had less than 10 constituents or constituents with more than 30% weight in the index so were not included in the Individual breakdown. Opinions expressed by Mr. Crawshaw reflect market performance and observations as of April 23rd, 2013 and are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions without notice. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Investments in emerging or developing markets involve exposure to economic structures that are generally less diverse and mature, and to political systems which can be expected to have less stability than those of more developed countries. Securities may be less liquid and more volatile than US and longer-established non-US markets.
The Russell Low Volatility Indexes, U.S. large- and small-cap indexes that seek to deliver lower volatility of returns than their parent Russell 1000® and Russell 2000® Indexes, have delivered on their objective in various time periods over the past year. The Russell 1000® & Russell 2000® Low Volatility Indexes aim to offer lower volatility as well as a competitive return to their parent index via an objective, transparent construction approach designed to deliver focused exposure to stocks with low total return variability. Lower volatility stocks are given more weight within the index. "Concern about market volatility in recent years has spurred interest in indexes that focus on stocks exhibiting lower historical variability of returns than their parent indexes," said David Koenig, CFA, FRM, investment strategist with Russell Indexes. "In today's environment of heightened uncertainty, investors have utilized low volatility strategies in portfolio construction as a way to help manage portfolio volatility while maintaining equity market participation." Russell Index Returns Russell Index Standard Deviations Source: Russell Investments. Returns are denominated in US dollars. Standard deviation for all time periods is based on annualized standard deviation of daily index returns.
Opinions expressed by Mr. Koenig reflect market performance and observations as of April 22nd, 2013 and are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions without notice. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
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